Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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49¢
Bid/Ask 4/94¢·Spread 90¢·Vol $0·OI $105.779·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0x58d735c94571661e7819362dc457b44062b6623e8cb018bb5ca5a52bffe5f897
7-day price290 snapshots · 4 regime
60¢49¢ current
Apr 825¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress, and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 7390 (119th) — SELF DRIVE Act of 2026. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 150.1%
IY (No) 138.5%
Adj IY 75%
CRI 1
Overround 4.7%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)150.1%
IY (No)138.5%
Adj IY75%
CRI1
Overround4.7%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
90¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:28:10 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x58d735c94571661e7819362dc457b44062b6623e8cb018bb5ca5a52bffe5f897 yes 100

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