Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

The market is pricing an extremely high 92% probability of a Trump China visit in 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (12.3% for Yes vs. 1627% for No) suggest severe underpricing of the No outcome—a classic sign of overconfident consensus. With only $62.66 in 24-hour volume against $12.6M open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk if traders attempt to exit. The modest 1-cent price decline over 7 days and neutral regime score indicate the market has settled into this lopsided positioning without recent catalysts, making it vulnerable to geopolitical shocks or diplomatic developments that could rapidly reprrice this binary.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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