What is the current probability for "Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 81¢ (81% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 2, 2027. 407 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 23.9% and 337.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market has collapsed 6% over the past week to 81¢, suggesting declining confidence that California's top-two primary will produce a split Democratic-Republican general election ticket.

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81¢

Bid/Ask 79/82¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $1,029.89·OI $11,511.36·Closes Jun 2, 2027·407d remaining

KXGOVCAPRIMARYPARTY-26-1D1R

7-day price123 snapshots · 19 regime

83¢79¢ current

Apr 1172¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market has collapsed 6% over the past week to 81¢, suggesting declining confidence that California's top-two primary will produce a split Democratic-Republican general election ticket. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—280.8% on the No side versus 28.0% on Yes—reflects the market's conviction that a same-party runoff (two Democrats) is substantially more likely, though the 4¢ spread and modest $9.4k open interest indicate thin liquidity for a market with over a year until resolution. The unusually high realized volatility of 267% and vol ratio of 4.93 suggest this contract experiences sharp price swings despite low daily volume of just $6.09, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

If 1 Democrat and 1 Republican advance to the general election for California Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 23.9%

IY (No) 337.6%

Adj IY 325%

CRI 4

RV 88%

VR 1.82

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	23.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	337.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	325%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	88%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.82	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.692

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:22:43 PM

SF edge 16.0¢ noObservability directEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +16¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCAPRIMARYPARTY-26-1D1R yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →