Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows a modest bullish shift over the past week, with the price climbing 3 cents from 57¢ to 60¢, suggesting growing confidence in Ken Calvert's advancement to the CA-40 top 2.
Analysis
This market shows a modest bullish shift over the past week, with the price climbing 3 cents from 57¢ to 60¢, suggesting growing confidence in Ken Calvert's advancement to the CA-40 top 2. The notably asymmetric implied yields—59.1% for Yes versus 133.0% for No—indicate the market is pricing in significant tail risk for a Calvert loss, though the risk-adjusted yield of 67% provides a more balanced view of expected returns. With only $54 in 24-hour volume against $1,964 open interest and 412 days to expiry, liquidity is thin, meaning larger trades could move the price meaningfully and the market may not efficiently incorporate new information about the race.
Resolution rules
If Ken Calvert advances in the CA-40 top 2 primary election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA40PRIMARYADVANCE-26-KCAL yes 100