Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?

This market prices an extremely unlikely event at 7¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 6,491% on the "Yes" side, reflecting the massive asymmetry between the tiny probability and potential payout. The 1¢ spread and $164k daily volume suggest reasonable liquidity for such a niche outcome, though the $31.4M open interest appears disproportionately large relative to the low price, warranting scrutiny about whether this represents genuine hedging or speculative positioning. With 75 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 1,242%, the market is pricing in extreme tail risk, though the flat 7-day price movement and neutral regime suggest current stability despite the high cliff risk index of 13.

Resolution rules

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade