Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?

This market prices an extremely low-probability event at 7¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 6,491% on the Yes side, reflecting the remote likelihood of VP JD Vance entering Iran within 75 days. The 75-basis-point price increase over seven days combined with exceptional realized volatility of 1,872% and a Vol Ratio of 2.17 suggests speculative positioning rather than fundamental information flow, particularly given the modest $822k daily volume relative to $18.1M open interest. The neutral regime score and steady 1.6 info arrivals per hour indicate this is primarily a tail-risk bet rather than a market responding to breaking geopolitical developments.

Resolution rules

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade