Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?

This market prices an extraordinarily unlikely scenario at 7¢, generating a 6490.6% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk premium reflecting near-zero probability that Secretary of State Rubio enters Iran within 75 days. The sharp 2¢ price decline over seven days combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $218 suggests thin liquidity and potential overreaction to recent news, though the $26.2M open interest indicates meaningful capital is committed to this binary outcome. The 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as resolution hinges on a single binary event with no partial outcomes, making this a speculative tail-risk trade rather than a fundamental probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade