Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?

The market is pricing Pete Hegseth's entry into Iran at just 4%, reflecting extremely low baseline probability for a U.S. Defense Secretary to visit Iran given current geopolitical tensions. The implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 11,724%, indicating severe illiquidity with only $26,905 in open interest across a 75-day window, making this a highly speculative micro-market vulnerable to manipulation. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests potential for sharp moves as the June 2026 expiration approaches, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional momentum currently.

Resolution rules

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

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