Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4545% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 4.3% on the No side, suggesting the 16¢ price may significantly underestimate DJ Khaled's likelihood of appearing on the album given their extensive collaboration history.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4545% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 4.3% on the No side, suggesting the 16¢ price may significantly underestimate DJ Khaled's likelihood of appearing on the album given their extensive collaboration history. The wide 13¢ spread and minimal $17.7 daily volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and difficult to execute at scale. With 260 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32, there's adequate time for new information, though the neutral regime and sparse trading activity warrant caution before treating this as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If DJ Khaled is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-DJK yes 100