SpaceX · Who will IPO
SpaceX is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Who will IPO.
Price history
99¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
SpaceX
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
SpaceX 96¢
Range
4¢-96¢
Family volume
$31K
Identifier
KXIPO-26-SPACEX
May 21, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$437
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will IPO
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$31K
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXIPO-26-SPACEX
Event family
Who will IPO.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$31K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
SpaceX 96¢
Current share
1%
SpaceX
kalshi · KXIPO-26-SPACEX
Jersey Mike's
kalshi · KXIPO-26-JERS
OpenAI
kalshi · KXIPO-26-OPENAI
Anthropic
kalshi · KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC
Discord
kalshi · KXIPO-26-DISCORD
Kraken
kalshi · KXIPO-26-KRAKEN
Plaid
kalshi · KXIPO-26-PLAID
Databricks
kalshi · KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS
Skims
kalshi · KXIPO-26-SKIMS
Beast Industries
kalshi · KXIPO-26-BEAS
Applied Intuition
kalshi · KXIPO-26-AINTUITION
Anduril
kalshi · KXIPO-26-ANDURIL
Anysphere (Cursor)
kalshi · KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE
Mistral AI
kalshi · KXIPO-26-MISTRAL
Glean
kalshi · KXIPO-26-GLEAN
xAI
kalshi · KXIPO-26-XAI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.