Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap with Polymarket pricing Mistral AI's IPO probability 17% higher at 14¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or differing venue sentiment.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap with Polymarket pricing Mistral AI's IPO probability 17% higher at 14¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or differing venue sentiment. The 12¢ price implies only a 12% probability despite an extreme 1,424% implied yield on Yes, reflecting the market's thin $1,987 open interest and zero 24-hour volume—typical of low-conviction pricing on niche outcomes. With 259 days to expiry and a 10 cliff risk index, the market appears underpriced relative to Polymarket, though the lack of trading activity warrants caution before deploying capital.
Resolution rules
If Mistral AI confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-MISTRAL yes 100