Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 54% probability of Anthropic IPO before 2027, but shows signs of recent selling pressure with the price declining from 59¢ to 53¢ over seven days and a 2¢ spread suggesting modest liquidity concerns at $42.8k open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 54% probability of Anthropic IPO before 2027, but shows signs of recent selling pressure with the price declining from 59¢ to 53¢ over seven days and a 2¢ spread suggesting modest liquidity concerns at $42.8k open interest. Notably, the implied yield for "No" (158.8%) substantially exceeds the "Yes" yield (124.9%), indicating the market may be underpricing tail risk or reflecting genuine skepticism about near-term IPO timing despite the binary being just 259 days from expiry. A 2¢ cross-venue gap exists versus Polymarket (52¢), with Kalshi trading slightly richer, though the extreme realized volatility of 358% and vol ratio of 3.27 suggest this market experiences significant pricing swings relative to information flow.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC yes 100