Who will IPO before 2027?

The market has declined 5 cents over seven days to 52¢, suggesting weakening conviction in an OpenAI IPO within the timeframe despite a substantial 131% annualized yield for Yes holders. Liquidity is moderate at $763 daily volume against $46k open interest, with a tight 2¢ spread, though the 162% realized volatility and 1.47 vol ratio indicate significant price swings relative to implied moves. The unusually high No yield (154%) and neutral regime signal balanced uncertainty, with the market pricing roughly even odds despite the compressed 257-day window remaining.

Resolution rules

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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