Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing Glean's pre-2027 IPO at 11¢ versus Kalshi's 4¢—a 175% gap that suggests either Kalshi underpricing the probability or Polymarket overpricing it.
Analysis
This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing Glean's pre-2027 IPO at 11¢ versus Kalshi's 4¢—a 175% gap that suggests either Kalshi underpricing the probability or Polymarket overpricing it. The 1,871% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high but misleading given the minuscule 4¢ price and $2,300 open interest, indicating illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity; the zero 24-hour volume confirms this market is essentially inactive. The 7-day price movement from 4¢ to 7¢ and elevated realized volatility (1,273%) suggest recent price discovery, but the wide 3¢ spread and low information arrival rate (0.5/h) mean any position would face execution challenges.
Resolution rules
If Glean confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-GLEAN yes 100