Who will IPO in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Who will IPO in 2026?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 72% probability that Jersey Mike's will IPO before year-end 2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $3,078 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 72% probability that Jersey Mike's will IPO before year-end 2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $3,078 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price. The asymmetric implied yields—286% for a No resolution versus 69.4% for Yes—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward the affirmative outcome, creating an unusually attractive risk-reward for contrarian bettors willing to bet against an IPO. With 259 days to expiry and a flat 7-day price trajectory, this appears to be a stale market awaiting either concrete IPO news or a fundamental reassessment of Jersey Mike's public market timeline.
Resolution rules
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-JERS yes 100