Who will perform the next James Bond Song?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Who will perform the next James Bond Song?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market is pricing Dua Lipa at just 28¢ despite an unusually high 56% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant undervaluation or substantial uncertainty about whether the next Bond film will materialize before the 2035 expiry.
Analysis
This market is pricing Dua Lipa at just 28¢ despite an unusually high 56% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant undervaluation or substantial uncertainty about whether the next Bond film will materialize before the 2035 expiry. The 8¢ spread and minimal $4.39 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, making the price potentially unreliable, while the recent 3¢ decline over seven days suggests weakening conviction. With over 3,100 days to resolution and a moderate 5 cliff risk index, the market has ample time for a Bond announcement, but the low open interest of $4,632 means this contract lacks the depth to confidently trade large positions.
Resolution rules
If Dua Lipa performs the next James Bond film theme, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-DUA yes 100