Who will perform the next James Bond Song?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will perform the next James Bond Song?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This Lana Del Rey-specific market shows significant bearish momentum, declining 19% over seven days to 17¢ despite a notably elevated 56% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting recent negative sentiment around her Bond song prospects.
Analysis
This Lana Del Rey-specific market shows significant bearish momentum, declining 19% over seven days to 17¢ despite a notably elevated 56% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting recent negative sentiment around her Bond song prospects. The thin liquidity ($2,262.87 open interest, $416.95 daily volume) and wide 2¢ spread indicate low conviction trading, while the 3,182-day timeframe to expiry creates substantial cliff risk (index of 5) as multiple Bond films could release before resolution. The 28% risk-adjusted yield implies the market may be overpricing the Yes outcome relative to actual probability, presenting a potential contrarian opportunity if Del Rey's odds have been unfairly depressed.
Resolution rules
If Lana Del Rey performs the next James Bond film theme, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LAN yes 100