Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 107.1% implied yield versus just 9.6% for Yes, suggesting significant underpricing of alternative outcomes despite the 77¢ price reflecting strong confidence in the Modern Revolutionary Party.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 107.1% implied yield versus just 9.6% for Yes, suggesting significant underpricing of alternative outcomes despite the 77¢ price reflecting strong confidence in the Modern Revolutionary Party. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $736 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading as a true liquidity measure. With 1,141 days until expiry and a neutral regime score of 0.409, there's substantial time for political shifts in the Dominican Republic, though the low trading activity and modest cliff risk (3) suggest this market hasn't attracted meaningful speculative interest.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Dominican Republic Senate election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is Modern Revolutionary Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOMINICANREPUBLICSENATE-28-PRM yes 100