Who will win the next Ghanian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Who will win the next Ghanian presidential election?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $67 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $67 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 218% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated relative to the 3.3% on the No side, suggesting the thin order book may not reflect true market consensus on Bawumia's chances. The recent 7-day price decline from 16¢ to 11¢ combined with a wide 7¢ spread indicates this contract lacks depth and should be approached cautiously despite the long 1,355-day timeframe to resolution.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Ghanaian presidential election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is Mahamudu Bawumia, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGHANAPRES-28-MBAW yes 100