Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing August 30, 2028. This market is severely illiquid with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 168.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 10.5% No yield, suggesting either significant mispricing or extreme uncertainty about Movimiento Semilla's prospects in the 2027 Guatemalan Congressional election. With 867 days to expiry and minimal price movement (19¢ to 20¢), this appears to be a speculative niche market lacking sufficient liquidity for confident position-building.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is Movimiento Semilla, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGUATEMALACONGRESS-27-SEMILLA yes 100