Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing August 30, 2028. This illiquid micro-market on Vamos's chances in Guatemala's 2027 congressional election shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 113.9% annualized return against just 15.6% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of the Vamos outcome relative to market consensus.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Vamos's chances in Guatemala's 2027 congressional election shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 113.9% annualized return against just 15.6% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of the Vamos outcome relative to market consensus. The $55 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity, making the 30¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate, and the 3¢ spread represents a 10% slippage cost that would substantially erode any position. With 867 days to expiry and a modest downward drift from 28¢ to 27¢ over the past week, this market appears to be a speculative backwater with meaningful cliff risk (index of 3), suggesting traders should demand significant liquidity premiums before committing capital.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is Vamos, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGUATEMALACONGRESS-27-VAMOS yes 100