Who will win the next Philippine House election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will win the next Philippine House election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 258.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 4.0% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues a PFP House victory relative to market consensus on other outcomes.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 258.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 4.0% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues a PFP House victory relative to market consensus on other outcomes. The $282 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 6¢ spread potentially unrepresentative of true fair value, while the elevated 8 Cliff Risk Index flags execution risk near the May 2029 expiry. With over three years until resolution, this appears to be a mispriced niche contract where the low volume and tight OI may reflect limited trader interest rather than genuine market conviction about PFP's chances.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Philippine House election in 2028 is PFP, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPHILIPPINESHOUSE-28-PFP yes 100