Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market on Win Gatchalian winning the 2028 Philippine presidential election is severely illiquid with only $93 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9-cent price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market on Win Gatchalian winning the 2028 Philippine presidential election is severely illiquid with only $93 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9-cent price potentially unreliable. The extreme 1034.7% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a wide 5-cent spread suggests minimal trading activity and high uncertainty around this relatively obscure candidate's viability. With 1,141 days until expiration, the market has substantial time decay risk, though the neutral regime score indicates no immediate directional pressure that would justify such a low probability for a sitting politician.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Philippine presidential election in 2028 is Win Gatchalian, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPHILIPPINESPRES-28-WGAT yes 100