Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $132 open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $132 open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 240% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment, while the 150% realized volatility and recent 5¢ price movement (32¢ to 37¢ over 7 days) suggest considerable uncertainty about Israel's Eurovision televote prospects. With 259 days to expiration and a low info arrival rate of 0.3/h, this contract may remain illiquid until closer to the event, making it a speculative play rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism.
Also on polymarket at 37¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
If Israel wins the Televote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONTELEV-26-ISR yes 100