Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $714 open interest, suggesting the contract trades infrequently or has wide bid-ask spreads (4¢ noted).
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $714 open interest, suggesting the contract trades infrequently or has wide bid-ask spreads (4¢ noted). The implied yield of 2681% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of low-probability, thinly-traded binary contracts—but the recent price movement from 1¢ to 5¢ (a 400% jump over seven days) indicates either new information favoring Romania's televote chances or minimal trading moving the price substantially. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market lacks conviction; the 19 cliff risk index suggests potential for sharp moves near resolution.
Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
If Romania wins the Televote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONTELEV-26-ROM yes 100