Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) for a Democratic win in WI-02, with the price rising 4 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in Democratic retention. The "No" side offers an extraordinary 3,456% implied yield, indicating severe mispricing or minimal belief in a Republican upset, though this is offset by a high Cliff Risk Index of 19 and very thin liquidity at just $3,515 in 24-hour volume. With over 200 days until the November 2026 election, there's substantial time for political shifts, making the extreme yield on the Republican side potentially attractive for contrarian bettors despite the district's apparent Democratic lean.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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