Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 5¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—1231.9% on "No" versus 3.4% on "Yes"—reflect the market's near-certainty that Flint won't secure the nomination, though with 563 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, significant uncertainty remains about the eventual outcome. The stagnant 7-day price action at 95¢ suggests minimal recent trading activity, so any position here carries substantial execution risk.
Resolution rules
If Aaron Flint wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 MT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMTPRIMARY-01R26-AFLI yes 100