Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-3?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-3?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1553% and a vol ratio of 5.86, yet trades on minimal liquidity with only $10 in 24-hour volume despite $8.5K open interest, suggesting price discovery challenges.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1553% and a vol ratio of 5.86, yet trades on minimal liquidity with only $10 in 24-hour volume despite $8.5K open interest, suggesting price discovery challenges. The Yes side offers an unusually high 284.5% implied yield over the 201-day horizon, indicating either significant uncertainty about Stanford's nomination prospects or potential mispricing given the thin trading. The sharp 12-cent price rally over seven days combined with a neutral regime and 2.1 info arrivals per hour suggests the market is reacting to campaign developments, though low volume makes the 39¢ price potentially unstable.
Resolution rules
If Ala Stanford wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-3 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPA3D-26-ASTA yes 100