Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4366% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.6% on the No side, reflecting the 4¢ price and minimal $366 open interest.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4366% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.6% on the No side, reflecting the 4¢ price and minimal $366 open interest. The zero 24-hour volume and wide 4¢ spread suggest this contract trades rarely, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. With 201 days to the 11/3/2026 close and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, the market has time for information to develop, but traders should expect wide slippage if attempting to build meaningful positions.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Alani Bankhead wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Montana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMTD-26-ABAN yes 100