Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
KXAOCSENATE-28 · closes Apr 1, 2028 · 717 days remaining
Price
Last
57¢
Bid
52¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$2.7
Open Interest
$5,802.58
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 47.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 55.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.10 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 182% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.63 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 50% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
11 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 5:11:55 AM
About this market
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for Senate in 2028 before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXAOCSENATE-28 yes 100