Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8f81a4e47bb18d14fb067d35d370239ecac9f7d7c85971a28efcf7c44e13dd35 yes 100