Will any AI model have a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 76% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 65%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 1520 score
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
65¢
At least 1530 score
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$41
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
188 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1550 score
KXAISPIKE-27-1550
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1600 score
KXAISPIKE-27-1600
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1540 score
KXAISPIKE-27B-1540
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1530 score
KXAISPIKE-27B-1530
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score
KXAISPIKE-27B-1520
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1650 score
KXAISPIKE-27-1650
Analysis
This asks whether any AI model will achieve a score of at least 1750 by year-end 2026, currently priced at 76% probability. The market structure shows declining prices at higher thresholds: 1520 is 76%, 1550 drops to 34%, and 1600 falls to 13%, suggesting uncertainty concentrates around whether models will exceed mid-range performance levels. The main drivers are: the rate of AI capability scaling in recent months, current best-model performance relative to the 1750 target, and the remaining ~6 months for frontier labs to release improved versions. Resolution hinges on which benchmarks define "score" and official reporting by major AI labs before December 31, 2026. Major model releases or benchmark updates in Q3-Q4 2026 would most directly impact this outcome.
- ›Current performance of leading AI models relative to 1750 threshold and historical acceleration rates over past 12 months
- ›Definition and standardization of the scoring mechanism—whether it references a specific published benchmark (e.g., ARC, MMLU, specialized domain scores)
- ›Number and timing of major AI model releases between now and Dec 31, 2026, and their reported performance levels
- ›Whether the 1750 target represents an incremental improvement from current leaders or a significant capability jump
- ›Clarity on reporting standards—which labs' official claims will count as valid evidence for resolution
Recently closed in technology
- How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?last 38% · 0d
- Will SpaceX be assigned to Communication Services in the S&P-500last 95% · 8d
- What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026last 36% · 8d
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.0Tlast 92% · 8d
- Next OpenAI Modellast 83% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.