Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. Arc's token launch is priced at an extremely depressed 8¢ with a massive 1,621% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or genuine skepticism about execution by June 2026—notably, the market doesn't close until January 1, 2027, creating a 6-month post-deadline window that may be suppressing current prices.
Analysis
Arc's token launch is priced at an extremely depressed 8¢ with a massive 1,621% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or genuine skepticism about execution by June 2026—notably, the market doesn't close until January 1, 2027, creating a 6-month post-deadline window that may be suppressing current prices. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $2.6M open interest and a 3¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the outsized yield opportunity, while the 1,782% realized volatility and 4.63 vol ratio suggest this market experiences sharp, infrequent moves rather than steady repricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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sf trade 0x4c35eee5846b4ebbbf8d5fcb112faa82677c4caf45fbbf622b29cc08f4bc1b9b yes 100