What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 89¢ (89% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1751.2% and 31827.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $3.960?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

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89¢

Bid/Ask 80/89¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $3,231.46·OI $3,257.39·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.960

7-day price251 snapshots · 24 regime

94¢83¢ current

Apr 206¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.960 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1751.2%

IY (No) 31827.6%

Adj IY 29078%

CRI 4

RV 12932%

VR 6.90

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1751.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	31827.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	29078%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	12932%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.90	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:31:41 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.960 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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