Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2045. This illiquid market with just $223 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows an extreme 31¢ spread, suggesting minimal price discovery and high execution risk for any trader.
Analysis
This illiquid market with just $223 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows an extreme 31¢ spread, suggesting minimal price discovery and high execution risk for any trader. The 11¢ Yes price implies a 128.2% annualized yield, which appears inflated relative to the 20-year timeframe and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With a Cliff Risk Index of 24 and the price stalled at 5¢ for seven days, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to be reliable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
If Cai Qi is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-CQI yes 100