Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
6705 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chen Jining become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Cluster 2
Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Cluster 3
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Cluster 4
Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Cluster 5
Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Cluster 6
Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Analysis
This represents a 14% probability that Cai Qi, currently a senior Chinese Communist Party official, will become the CCP's top leader by early 2045. The relatively low probability reflects that party leadership succession is determined by closed-door elite politics rather than elections, with the current general secretary unlikely to relinquish power in the near term. The main drivers of this probability are Cai Qi's current position within the party hierarchy, precedent for how succession typically occurs among competing factions, and the substantial uncertainty inherent in predicting outcomes nearly two decades forward in a non-transparent political system. The single biggest catalyst would be signals about the next scheduled transition window, likely occurring around 2032-2035 based on recent historical patterns. Changes to Cai Qi's formal position, purges of rivals, or major shifts in factional alignments could move the probability materially.
- ›Cai Qi's current standing in the party hierarchy compared to other potential successors and potential rivals
- ›Historical succession patterns in CCP leadership transitions and Cai Qi's alignment with dominant factions
- ›Any public statements, personnel changes, or factional realignments that affect the perceived stability of the current leadership
- ›Timeline uncertainty: succession is typically managed during specific windows; the longer the forecasting horizon, the higher the probability of unexpected political shifts
- ›Changes to Cai Qi's formal positions or responsibilities that would indicate promotion or marginalization within party structures
What moved the line
- Aug 20Ding Xuexiang↓9pp21→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Ding Xuexiang↑8pp12→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Ding Xuexiang↑8pp12→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Li Xi↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Li Xi↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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