Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a stratospheric 3456% implied yield versus just 9.6% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Beriont's nomination odds relative to the No side.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a stratospheric 3456% implied yield versus just 9.6% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Beriont's nomination odds relative to the No side. The contract has declined from 7¢ to 5¢ over seven days with zero 24-hour volume and only $367 open interest, indicating minimal conviction and potential pricing inefficiency across the wide 5¢ spread. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a speculative position in a low-attention race where the market may not yet reflect emerging candidate viability.
Resolution rules
If Carleigh Beriont wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNH1D-26-CBER yes 100