Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 2, 2026
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 2, 2026. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 11,458.6% implied yield on Yes contracts.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 11,458.6% implied yield on Yes contracts. The 7-day price movement from 17¢ to 24¢ suggests some recent activity, but with only 10 days to expiry and a 3¢ spread, this appears to be a thin, speculative contract with minimal market depth. The cliff risk index of 3 indicates meaningful execution risk, and traders should be cautious that the extreme yield figures may not reflect true market consensus given the negligible liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Choosin' Texas is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of May 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONG-26MAY02-CHO yes 100