What is the current probability for "Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 73¢ (73% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 30, 2026. 39 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 349.6% and 2555.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2026. The market has priced in an extremely high probability (92¢) for "Choosin' Texas" to hit #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 by May 2026, yet liquidity is critically thin at just $31.25 in 24-hour volume and open interest, suggesting this price may not reflect genuine conviction.

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73¢

Bid/Ask 73/76¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $1,929.62·OI $2,055.54·Closes May 30, 2026·39d remaining

KXRANKLIST1SONG-26MAY30-CHO

7-day price33 snapshots · 8 regime

89¢73¢ current

Apr 142¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has priced in an extremely high probability (92¢) for "Choosin' Texas" to hit #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 by May 2026, yet liquidity is critically thin at just $31.25 in 24-hour volume and open interest, suggesting this price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—159.6% for Yes versus 4399.4% for No—combined with a sharp 7-day rally from 84¢ to 92¢ and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, indicate potential overconfidence or concentrated positioning that could reverse sharply if the song underperforms chart expectations. With only 44 days to resolution and an 8¢ spread, this market appears vulnerable to correction given the illiquidity supporting such an extreme probability.

Resolution rules

If Choosin' Texas is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 349.6%

IY (No) 2555.4%

Adj IY 2345%

CRI 3

RV 1071%

VR 5.20

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	349.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2555.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2345%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1071%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.20	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:14:15 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRANKLIST1SONG-26MAY30-CHO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →