What is the current probability for "Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 71 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12408.3% and 21.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,178.54 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 4/11¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $2,423.81·Closes Jul 1, 2026·71d remaining

KXSP500ADDQ-26JUL01-CRWV

7-day price9 snapshots · 5 regime

5¢4¢ current

Apr 153¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,178.54 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 15,619.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic liquidity mirage—reflecting the wide 6¢ spread rather than genuine market conviction that CoreWeave will join the S&P 500 within 76 days. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days suggests weakening conviction, and with a Cliff Risk Index of 32, there's meaningful uncertainty about how this resolves given CoreWeave's current market cap and index eligibility status.

Resolution rules

If CoreWeave is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12408.3%

IY (No) 21.5%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

LAS 2.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12408.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:52:39 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSP500ADDQ-26JUL01-CRWV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →