Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$167
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026
Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?: SoFi
KXSP500ADDQ-26JUL01-SOFI
Analysis
This market estimates a 13% chance that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 during the second quarter of 2026 (April-June). For a private company to join the index, it must first complete an initial public offering, as the S&P 500 only includes publicly traded U.S. companies. SpaceX would need to announce IPO plans, file with the SEC, and complete the offering all within the next two months for this to occur. The low probability reflects that SpaceX has shown no public indication of near-term IPO plans, and the company has historically prioritized operational growth over pursuing public markets. The primary catalyst would be an unexpected SpaceX IPO announcement; absent such a surprise, the probability hinges on whether market conditions and company leadership signal any shift toward public listing timelines.
- ›SpaceX has not filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC as of May 2026, a required first step for any U.S. IPO
- ›The company would need to complete SEC review, roadshow, and pricing within Q2 2026—a compressed timeline compared to typical IPO processes
- ›SpaceX remains profitable and well-capitalized through private funding rounds, reducing financial pressure to go public
- ›Historical statements from Elon Musk have indicated SpaceX profitability and operational autonomy as reasons to remain private
- ›S&P 500 index inclusion requires companies to meet liquidity, size, and trading history requirements that must be satisfied post-IPO before inclusion consideration
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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