Will Dallas Stars win 4-3 in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Dallas Stars win 4-3 in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. The market shows extreme mispricing with an 8189% implied yield on Yes contracts at 19¢, suggesting either severe illiquidity ($2,725 open interest) or significant underpricing of a Dallas 4-3 series win outcome.
Analysis
The market shows extreme mispricing with an 8189% implied yield on Yes contracts at 19¢, suggesting either severe illiquidity ($2,725 open interest) or significant underpricing of a Dallas 4-3 series win outcome. The 7-day price decline from 20¢ to 14¢ combined with 2580% realized volatility and a 6.0 Cliff Risk Index indicates high uncertainty and potential for sharp moves as the playoff series approaches in 27 days. The 5¢ spread and $1,273 daily volume are thin for a binary sports outcome, raising concerns about execution risk for larger positions.
Resolution rules
If the series score is Dallas Stars wins 4-3 in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26MINDALR1-DAL43 yes 100