Will David Robinson be the Democratic nominee for SC-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will David Robinson be the Democratic nominee for SC-02?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and negligible open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and negligible open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 8¢ spread and extreme implied yields (36.5% Yes, 115.3% No) reflect the illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, though the recent 2¢ price decline from 66¢ suggests some modest bearish movement over the past week. With 563 days until expiration and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to generate actionable insights.
Resolution rules
If David Robinson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 SC-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCPRIMARY-02D26-DROB yes 100