Will Dollar Tree be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Dollar Tree be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $213.13 open interest, making the 11% price unreliable for genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $213.13 open interest, making the 11% price unreliable for genuine probability assessment. The astronomical 11,593.9% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity distortion rather than realistic removal odds, while the 6¢ bid-ask spread represents a massive 54.5% relative spread on a thin market. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days suggests weak conviction in removal risk, and with 76 days to expiry, this contract lacks sufficient trading activity to serve as a meaningful probability signal.
Resolution rules
If Dollar Tree is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSP500REMOVEQ-26JUL01-DLTR yes 100