Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the .... This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 2686% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues DtMF's chances relative to the No side's modest 7.4% yield.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 2686% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues DtMF's chances relative to the No side's modest 7.4% yield. The $0 24-hour volume and $4,018 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and the wide 4¢ spread a red flag for execution risk. With 258 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a speculative, thinly-traded contract where the extreme yield differential likely reflects information asymmetry rather than true market consensus.
Resolution rules
If DtMF is the #1 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFY-26-DTMF yes 100