Will Edmonton Oilers cover -2.5 games in the Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Edmonton Oilers cover -2.5 games in the Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $13.29 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a wide 13¢ spread and an unusually high 4135% implied yield on the Yes side that likely reflects thin order book depth rather than genuine expected returns.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $13.29 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a wide 13¢ spread and an unusually high 4135% implied yield on the Yes side that likely reflects thin order book depth rather than genuine expected returns. The 36¢ price implies Edmonton has just a 36% chance of winning by more than 2.5 games (essentially sweeping or winning 4-1), which seems reasonable for a playoff matchup but the massive yield differential suggests minimal market confidence in price stability. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract faces significant uncertainty around playoff seeding and matchup confirmation, making the extreme yield metrics more of a liquidity warning than an arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Edmonton Oilers wins by more than 2.5 games in the Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26ANAEDMR1-EDM3 yes 100