What is the current probability for "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 244.3% and 84.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 41% implied probability reflects modest conviction that Ethereum will exceed $3,500 by year-end 2026, with the Yes contract offering an exceptional 202.7% annualized yield despite 259 days to expiration.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 37/39¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $492.07·OI $64,943.46·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3500.00

7-day price426 snapshots · 63 regime

46¢37¢ current

Apr 834¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 41% implied probability reflects modest conviction that Ethereum will exceed $3,500 by year-end 2026, with the Yes contract offering an exceptional 202.7% annualized yield despite 259 days to expiration. The extremely high realized volatility of 374% and vol ratio of 2.61 suggest the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty, though the tight 1¢ spread and stable 7-day price indicate consensus around fair value. Notably, the $750 daily volume is thin relative to the $62.5k open interest, creating potential liquidity constraints for larger position adjustments.

Resolution rules

If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above 3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 244.3%

IY (No) 84.3%

Adj IY 244%

CRI 2

RV 244%

VR 1.52

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	244.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	84.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	244%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	244%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.52	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:48:24 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3500.00 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →