Will Ethereum reach above $4250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Ethereum reach above $4250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 24¢ price implies only a 24% probability of Ethereum exceeding $4,250 by January 2027, despite the token currently trading around $3,500-$3,600, requiring roughly a 18-21% gain over 259 days.
Analysis
The 24¢ price implies only a 24% probability of Ethereum exceeding $4,250 by January 2027, despite the token currently trading around $3,500-$3,600, requiring roughly a 18-21% gain over 259 days. The extreme 446% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 465% realized volatility and a 2.06 vol ratio suggests the market may be underpricing this outcome given Ethereum's historical price movements, though the thin $48.87 daily volume and modest $36,972 open interest raise liquidity concerns. The stable 7-day price movement (23¢ to 24¢) and neutral regime indicate relatively balanced sentiment, but the high cliff risk index warrants caution about late-stage price discovery.
Resolution rules
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above 4250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4250.00 yes 100