Will Ethereum reach above $4750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Ethereum reach above $4750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 19% probability that Ethereum reaches $4,750 by January 2027, despite the token currently trading around $3,500-$3,600, requiring roughly a 32-38% gain over 259 days.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 19% probability that Ethereum reaches $4,750 by January 2027, despite the token currently trading around $3,500-$3,600, requiring roughly a 32-38% gain over 259 days. The extreme 687.5% implied yield on the Yes side combined with very thin 24-hour volume of just $24.72 suggests this contract may be mispriced due to illiquidity rather than fundamental skepticism, particularly given Ethereum's historical volatility of 531% realized vol. The 2.00 vol ratio and neutral regime indicate market uncertainty, but the low liquidity and wide spread warrant caution before treating this as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above 4750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4750.00 yes 100