What is the current probability for "Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 540.6% and 38.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1034% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $2.5K open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and potential manipulation or stale pricing.

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21¢

Bid/Ask 16/25¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $1,159.854·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0xfe4425817cc4ac71bf9f9da024a5341090fb6022da114061b1a1af53117213b0

7-day price362 snapshots · 8 regime

41¢20¢ current

Apr 811¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1034% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $2.5K open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and potential manipulation or stale pricing. The 11% probability appears disconnected from Extended's actual development trajectory, as the 259-day timeframe to June 2026 provides ample runway for a governance token launch by a funded app platform. The 7-day price stability (13¢ to 12¢) combined with zero volume and a high cliff risk index of 7 indicates this market may be dormant or abandoned, making it unreliable for directional bets until liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Extended, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 540.6%

IY (No) 38.2%

Adj IY 309%

CRI 4

RV 1852%

VR 10.41

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	540.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	38.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	309%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1852%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.43	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:00:37 AM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfe4425817cc4ac71bf9f9da024a5341090fb6022da114061b1a1af53117213b0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →